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[51700] Artykuł: Stochastic model for estimating the annual number of storm overflow discharges(Stochastyczny model do prognozy rocznej liczby zrzutów przelewem burzowym)Czasopismo: Environmental Engineering V Tom: V, Strony: 43-52 ISBN: 978-1-138-03163-0 Wydawca: Taylor & Francis Group Opublikowano: Styczeń 2017 Autorzy / Redaktorzy / Twórcy Grupa MNiSW: Materiały z konferencji międzynarodowej (zarejestrowane w Web of Science) Punkty MNiSW: 15 Klasyfikacja Web of Science: Proceedings Paper ![]() ![]() ![]() Słowa kluczowe: regresja logistyczna  metoda Monte Carlo  zrzut przelewem  Keywords: logistic regression  method Monte Carlo  overflow discharges  |
Emergency overflow weirs are important components of stormwater drainage systems. During intensive rainfalls significant amounts of stormwater and contaminants contained therein are discharged through these outlets into receiving bodies of water, which may cause the disturbance of the biological-chemical balance. Therefore it is advisable to model the performance of overflow weirs in order to reduce the detrimental impact of the stormwater on the receiver. The article presents a stochastic model for estimating the annual number of storm overflow discharges. Defining the occurrence of an overflow discharge event involved the application of logistic regression, whereas the Monte Carlo method was used for computing annual sequences of rainfall events. 8-year sequences of rainfall measurements were used to estimate the parameters of statistical rainfall distributions. The calculations showed that the knowledge of two parameters i.e. the total and maximum 30-minute rainfall depth is sufficient to estimate the overflow performance.