Publikacje

Abstract:

Immigrants represent a signifcant component of Scotland’s social structure, economic
development and demographic growth. Scottish politics perceives immigration as an
opportunity and, in certain instances, as the sole viable solution to the country’s declining
population. In 2004, EU8 citizens accounted for 18% of immigrants in Scotland. The peak
was reached in 2007 at 54%, before a decline to 2% in 2022, returning to the level seen in
2002. These drastic shifts make the topic interesting and worthy of in-depth study. The
article aims to empirically analyse the changes in migration from the EU8 countries to
Scotland and to determine the major drivers. A panel data model was used to identify
the impact of macroeconomic factors on migration trends. The fndings reveal signifcant
variations in migration patterns among the EU8 countries, with Poles constituting the
largest immigrant group in Scotland. The study identifes a strong positive relationship
between immigration levels and factors such as unemployment rates and investment levels
(by institutional sectors and households) in the countries of origin, as well as the average
wages in the destination country. While economic growth in the EU8 countries, Brexit and
the Covid-19 pandemic have been identifed as contributing factors to the observed decline
in immigration to Scotland. In view of these developments, the Scottish Government
should consider modifying its migration policy in order to attract and retain immigrants

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Migration to Scotland from the EU8 countries