Abstract: A more than 30-year-long period of low inflation policy which since the beginning of the 1990s has assumed an institutionalized form of the inflation targeting policy allows to assess it from the point of view of its usefulness for creating the macroeconomic equilibrium and objectives which are set by modern stabilization policy. This assessment could be done only by comparing the economic achievements (results) of the countries which followed this type of policy with the results of the countries which in its economic policy were guided by economic growth as the priority and for which price stabilization was an important supplementary goal. The subject of comparative analyses were the data regarding the biggest G-20 economies from the years 1990(1) – 2015(18).
The research undertaken within this work provides some crucial conclusions. Firstly, the comparative analysis carried out in Chapter 1 confirmed the hypothesis that in the situation of moderate inflation developing countries achieved much better economic results (economic growth, employment, budget balance, public debt value) than the countries which in their policy followed a low a priori set inflation target.
The issues discussed in Chapters 2 and 3 show that the policy of tight inflation control does not consider many positive effects of a moderate price increase which are important for the efficient functioning of modern market economies. A moderate price increase strengthens, among others, downward wage flexibility, downward interest rate flexibility, real debt value flexibility, protects against the ZLB, etc. It can also be used as a kind of absorber limiting a negative impact of external shocks on the economy, as is the case with floating exchange rates.
The theoretical and empirical research included in Chapter 5 indicates that indeed the moderate inflation growth oriented countries are more resilient to exogenous shocks (for example oil shocks) and are able to overcome even a deep economic crisis of global reach (the example of the Great Recession) more effectively than the countries pursuing price stabilization.
The investigations undertaken in Chapter 6 confirmed the hypothesis that the low inflation oriented countries in the long run are prone to the risk of “japanization” of their economies manifesting itself in durable stagnation of economic growth and inability to overcome this stagnation even with the use of non-standard tools of monetary policy As it seems, in the long run, after inflation reaches a certain low level, its costs start to prevail over benefits. For each country this “threshold” (lower limit) of the inflation level can be different. Hence, in this work emphasis is put on risk and threats which are brought about by the policy adopting an a priori set low inflation target.
The studies undertaken within this book make us draw a final conclusion confirming its thesis that the policy of inflation targeting which aims to keep inflation indices at low levels and treats this as the main priority of stabilization policy has reached the limits of its potential and should be replaced by new solutions supporting/counteracting economic recession with simultaneous treating price stability as an important supplementary conditions. When economic growth is adopted as the priority a problem arises as regards the inflation rate which the authorities are ready to accept to avoid an uncontrolled price increase. Non-Decreasing Economic Growth Rate of Inflation (NDEGRI) can be helpful in this respect as it reconciles a necessity of economic growth support with a price increase the costs of which are fully balanced by the benefits that the economy can have from moderate inflation (e.g. no problem of the ZLB). In the final parts of the book a preliminary analysis of using this concept in the process of the American economy “normalization” ( to mid-2019) is carried out.
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